Predictions and Prophecies

Oddly but Wang predskazla what happened in Japan this spring.
At all times the man had a burning curiosity about his future. He turned to all sorts of soothsayers, fortune-teller, and other visionaries.

It happened sometimes that the predictions came true, but mostly they are found to be false.

Predictions, of course, are piece goods, which depends primarily on the talent of the seer, as well as the time interval separating the event from the moment of its predictions. As a rule, the reliability of the event is inversely proportional to the duration of this interval.

Usually, the predictions of famous seers such as Nostradamus, Wang and others, presented in a form difficult to understand that they interpret after the occurrence of certain events, when the benefits of these predictions is no.

For example, the famous prediction of Vanga concerning Kursk: ... City of Kursk in central Russia, and it is unclear how it can be flooded. It turns out he meant the submarine Kursk. But this is realized after.

We know that messing clearly predicted only a few events: when will the victory over Germany, when he will die and some. However, he considered himself not a predictor, and the telepath. Those few times when messing predict the future events, he related to manifestations of intuition, supported by deep analysis of the situation. That is his guess closer to the predictions than the predictions.

forecasts.

Forecasts are political, financial, economic, medical, scientific and technical. They are usually based on the data collection of information about the events in this area of ​​work. This data is then analyzed to identify patterns. In the best case on the basis of the data, a mathematical model and the extrapolation is carried out for the next time.

However, the reliability of the results decreases rapidly with increasing time interval forecasting. Therefore trust the forecasts as well as the predictions should be very cautious.

All the complexity of predicting and forecasting in the fact that we live in a world of consequences, without the slightest opportunity to experience and understand the causes of what is happening. Our five senses organs, even enhanced with the latest devices, unable to penetrate the world of causes, and therefore we can only capture the events and to gain stats. After that, analyze and make predictions for the future with any degree of probability of occurrence. A striking example of such a ...

But as often happens in our globally connected world of non-linear, when a sudden, just a small event changes the whole character of the subsequent process. This is the price forecasts every. Example of this is enough.

Science Club of Rome forecast for world population growth problem, formulated 30 years ago, has not proved. It is not possible to explain the current global demographic transition, expressed in a sharp drop in global fertility.

However, with doctored. Kapitza forecast can also hang in the air, because he is unable to account for future planetary events: accidents, wars, climate change and others that can dramatically affect the demographic picture.